ALAC Weather Service

.DAY 1 /SATURDAY AUGUST 7 2010/...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN WI INTO MINNESOTA. STRONG SFC BASED HEATING HAS LEAD TO INSTABILITY INCREASING OVER THE REGION.  A WARM FRNT WILL BECOME STRONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  AN 850MB CAP OVER NRN AND CNTRL WI WILL LIMIT STORM INITIATION EARLY...BUT AN MCS /POSSIBLY SVR/ SHOULD FORM OVER SD/MN AND SLIDE E-SE INTO NRN AND CNTRL WI.  BY THE TIME IT REACHES THIS AREA...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO IF THE BOURNDARY SHEAR IS GREAT ENOUGH.

 

.DAY 2 /SUNDAY AUGUST 8 2010/...

THIS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY /SOME POSSIBLE SVR/ OVER CNTRL AND SRN WI.  STORMS WILL BE MOVING SE...AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE OVER SRN WI.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 500MB ALSO IS GOOD...AROUND 50 KTS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.

 

.DAYS 3 - 7 /MONDAY AUGUST 9 - FRIDAY AUGUST 13 2010/...

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO STALL OVER NRN IL ON MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SRN WI AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION ONCE AGAIN.  THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE WEEK.  ATTM IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF SVR WX WILL BE A THREAT.