ALAC Weather Service

Madison/Middleton, Wisconsin

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Thunderstorm Outlook
Issued by ALAC Weather Service

 
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR WISCONSIN
ALAC STORM DETECTION CENTER MIDDLETON WI
507 PM CDT FRI APRIL 8 2011
 
 
...SUMMARY OF THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
.SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY
.MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY
.SLIGHT RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY

 
.DISCUSSION...
 
.DAYS 2 - 3 /SATURDAY APRIL 9 - SUNDAY APRIL 10 2011/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CAPE WILL REACH UP TO 2500 J/KG. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO REACH UPWARDS OF 60 KTS. THIS WILL SUPPORT TOWERING SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE LARGE HAIL DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION...BUT A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE POTENT DAY. WIND SHEAR WILL APPROACH THE 90 KT MARK...SUPPORTING STRONG ROTATING SUPERCELLS. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...PULLING THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY TO REACH 3000 J/KG THROUGH THE EVENING. A LULL PERIOD IS EXPECTED MID-DAY AS THE STORMS STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE CAP. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK THE CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER RIGHT AWAY...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.THESE STORMS WILL LATER LINK TOGETHER FORMING A SEVERE SQUALL LINE AND PUSH OUT OF THE CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY...AS WE MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER THE WEEKEND DAYS.
 
&&
 
...OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /APRIL 9/.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SW WI....OTHERWISE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN /APRIL 10/.

 
...OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /APRIL 9/.

MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE SLIGHT RISK FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN /APRIL 10/.
 
 
...OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN...
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT /APRIL 9/.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT /APRIL 10/.
 
&&
 
AT 2207Z /507 PM/ CURRENT WATCHES...
 
.MKX WFO...NONE
.GRB WFO...NONE
.ARX WFO...NONE
.MPX WFO...NONE
.DLB WFO...NONE 
 
$$
 
PATTEN
 
 

THIS IS NOT A REPORT ISSUED BY THE NWS...REFER TO YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE IN A DANGEROUS SITUATION!
..THIS OUTLOOK IS ONLY UPDATED AS NEEDED..