.DAY 2 /SUNDAY JUNE 26 2011/...
850MB TEMPS START TO RISE AS S/SE WIND ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO SRN WI. WRM FRNT WILL MOVE NE THRU SRN WI ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVE BRINING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. MAY BE A WEAK CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PER NAM...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS FOR TSTMS. CAP WOULD WEAKEN BY 00Z SUNDAY EVE ALLOWING HIGH CHC POPS FOR TSTMS IN THE FCST. NOT REALLY EXPECING MUCH ON THE SVR END DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THINGS ARE JUST STARTING TO GET UNSTABLE. WIND SHEAR IS STILL SUFFICENT /AOB 30 KTS AT THE 0-6KM/ BUT INSTABILITY IS THE QUESTION. MICRO WXC MODEL KEEPS IT MEAGER ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THIS WHEN THE LOCAL WRF CHECKLIST AND NAM 00Z COME IN...ALONG WITH 18Z NAM ON SAT.

 

.DAY 3 /MONDAY JUNE 27 2011/...

INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BY MONDAY. STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT HOW GOOD THE INSTABILITY WILL BE. SOME MODELS SO CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...WHILE OTHERS SOME ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS < 900 J/KG. IF IT CAN CLIMB AOB 1500 J/KG THIS COULD REACT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF ALMOST 40 KNOTS TO PRODUCE SOME SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS /ESPECIALLY IF THEY BECOME LINEAR/ ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL...AND SOMEWHAT OF A RISK FOR TORNADOES. SPC HIGHLIGHTED REGION FOR POTENTIAL SVR WX. STAY TUNED.